Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
